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Country Report Turkey May 2011
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HTMLEconomic performance: Economic activity remains strong in early 2011
Economic data suggest that activity remained strong in the first quarter of 2011, compared with the same period of 2010. Industrial production rose by 19% year on year in January and by 13.9% in February 2011. Output of capital goods, durable consumer goods such as automotives and intermediate goods including refined products was particularly high compared with a year earlier. On a month-on-month basis, industrial production declined by a seasonally and calendar-adjusted 1.7% after rising in the previous two months. In March capacity utilisation in the manufacturing industry held up at 73.2%, compared with 73% in February and 67.3% in March 2010, suggesting that output growth was still robust, at least in year-on-year terms.
| Industrial production | ||||||||||||||
| (2005=100; % change year on year, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 2011 | |||||||||||||
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | |
| Mining | 0.4 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 11.2 | 3.9 | -1.8 | -1.7 | 0.9 | -11.5 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 11.9 | 6,4 |
| Utilities | 3.3 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 15.6 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 11.2 |
| Manufacturing | 15.2 | 19.9 | 24.3 | 18.5 | 16.0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 10.1 | 18.5 | 20.5 | 14.7 |
| Food | 13.9 | 14.8 | 13.9 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 13.2 | 0.1 | -1.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 3.2 |
| Textiles | 18.5 | 26.4 | 26.1 | 20.6 | 20.2 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 7.3 | 12.5 | 3.3 |
| Clothing | -0.5 | 13.3 | 15.5 | 17.0 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 13.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | -6.3 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 0.7 |
| Refining | -8.6 | -15.9 | 33.0 | 11.5 | 4.1 | -3.6 | -12.1 | 14.2 | 7.2 | 13.4 | 20.7 | 23.6 | 33.1 | 47.5 |
| Chemicals | 36.0 | 31.8 | 30.6 | 21.1 | 19.5 | 15.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 17.6 | 18.0 | 14.5 |
| Metal industry | -0.7 | 0.4 | 16.8 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 1.1 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 17.5 | 31.8 | 20.8 | 21.5 |
| Miscellaneous machinery | 12.1 | 15.7 | 51.8 | 36.4 | 21.7 | 32.5 | 35.4 | 26.4 | 41.0 | 30.8 | 41.8 | 42.5 | 47.7 | 37.2 |
| Automotive | 80.0 | 79.4 | 62.3 | 30.0 | 25.8 | 28.7 | 6.0 | 27.8 | 19.4 | 31.9 | 26.7 | 30.4 | 29.3 | 31.2 |
| Total industrial production | 12.8 | 17.6 | 21.4 | 16.9 | 14.9 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 16.7 | 19.0 | 13.9 |
| Intermediate goods | 15.7 | 21.3 | 29.1 | 22.4 | 22.8 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 14.0 | 23.8 | 22.4 | 16.7 |
| Durable consumer goods | 31.6 | 25.9 | 24.2 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 0.3 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 21.7 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 15.3 | 12.6 |
| Non-durable consumer goods | 4.4 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 3.6 | -1.1 | 5.2 | 10.8 | 2.6 |
| Energy | 0.3 | 1.7 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 13.0 | 13.4 |
| Capital goods | 38.2 | 34.8 | 35.9 | 26.6 | 20.5 | 25.0 | 10.4 | 22.7 | 20.3 | 25.5 | 23.0 | 33.5 | 34.8 | 28.9 |
| Total industrial productiona | 1.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2.9 | -2.7 | 0.4 | 2.9 | -0.6 | 3.8 | -1.1 | 5.4 | 0.5 | -1.7 |
| a Seasonally and calendar-adjusted; % change month on month. | ||||||||||||||
| Source: Turkstat. | ||||||||||||||
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Indicators of consumer and investor confidence have been mixed. The official consumer confidence index rose from 91.3 points in January to 93.6 in February 2011, but remained below the neutral 100 threshold. The real sector confidence index published by the Central Bank, which measures sentiment in manufacturing industry, dipped to 110 in February from 113.6 in January, but bounced back to 114.8 in March-its highest level since May 2010.
