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Country Report Turkey May 2011
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HTMLOutlook for 2011-15: Forecast summary
| Forecast summary | ||||||
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
| 2010a | 2011b | 2012b | 2013b | 2014b | 2015b | |
| Real GDP growth | 8.9 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Industrial production growth | 13.1 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Gross fixed investment growth | 29.9 | 18.5 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Unemployment rate (av) | 12.0 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| Consumer price inflation (av) | 8.6 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 4.0 |
| Consumer price inflation (end-period) | 6.4 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Short-term interbank rate | 5.8 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Government balance (% of GDP) | -3.6 | -3.3 | -2.5 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -2.1 |
| Exports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 120.9 | 135.6 | 140.5 | 150.8 | 164.6 | 182.3 |
| Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 177.3 | 200.9 | 205.5 | 220.8 | 235.9 | 259.0 |
| Current-account balance (US$ bn) | -48.6 | -56.0 | -54.5 | -58.2 | -59.7 | -63.8 |
| Current-account balance (% of GDP) | -6.6 | -7.3 | -6.5 | -6.3 | -5.8 | -5.6 |
| External debt (end-period; US$ bn) | 290.4cd | 312.5 | 315.4 | 322.6 | 330.9 | 347.7 |
| Exchange rate TL:US$ (av) | 1.503 | 1.564 | 1.600 | 1.609 | 1.591 | 1.585 |
| Exchange rate TL:US$ (end-period) | 1.541 | 1.582 | 1.605 | 1.600 | 1.588 | 1.582 |
| Exchange rate TL:¥100 (av) | 1.710 | 1.913 | 1.976 | 1.987 | 1.938 | 1.898 |
| Exchange rate TL:€ (av) | 1.992 | 2.134 | 2.073 | 1.975 | 1.953 | 2.021 |
| a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. d Based on full-year Treasury data. | ||||||
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© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information