Assuming that the AKP will remain in office after the general election in June 2011, we expect a good degree of continuity in Turkish foreign policy. The mainstay of the AKP's foreign policy will remain striking a balance between maintaining good relations with the US and EU and improving ties with Turkey's neighbours, notably Iraq, Syria, Iran and Russia, its main energy supplier. The government's more assertive approach and its independence from Western positions, especially on issues such as Iran's nuclear programme and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has won Mr Erdogan popular support at home and in the Arab world, but risks raising tensions with the EU and the US from time to time. Slow progress on EU membership negotiations, closer ties with Iran and a sharp deterioration in relations with Israel have led to accusations that under the AKP, Turkey is turning away from the West. We believe that this view is misplaced. The AKP's policy of "zero problems with neighbours" is consistent with EU requirements and has boosted trade links in the region. Moreover, as turmoil has spread in the Arab world, many Western observers have pointed to Turkey as a democratic model for other Muslim countries.

The AKP has supported UN-backed efforts to resolve the division of Cyprus. However, a solution that is acceptable to both the Greek and Turkish Cypriots is unlikely to be found. The differences between the two sides remain considerable and the government will have no pressing reason to facilitate a settlement on the Cyprus question, as Turkey's EU accession process is likely to remain in the doldrums.

Turkish-US relations have been better under the current US president, Barack Obama, than under his predecessor, George W Bush. However, major areas of disagreement persist, and there is a considerable risk that this could lead to another sharp deterioration in the short to medium term. The crisis in Turkey's relations with Israel, Turkey's efforts to maintain positive relations with Iran and the threat of a full vote in the US Congress to recognise as genocide the massacre of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915-17 will continue to cause tension.