Country Report Senegal April 2011

Economic performance: Agriculture improves again but data are questionable

According to latest official agricultural production figures for the 2010/11 season, improved rainfall supported harvests even better than 2009's impressive output. Groundnut production, at 1,063,652 tonnes, was up by 3% on the 2009 record harvest. Other key crops like cotton (up by 26.1%) and rice (up by 19.1%) also recorded substantial increases. Rice output has continued its impressive growth since the Grande offensive agricole pour la nourriture et l'abondance (GOANA) was launched in 2008. From output of around 200,000 tonnes of paddy rice in the 2006/07 season, paddy rice production reached a record 598,093 tonnes in 2010/11, equivalent to around 376,000 tonnes of white rice. This has coincided with a reduction in rice imports from a record 1,012,000 tonnes in 2008 to 650,000 tonnes in 2010, with domestic production now covering almost 37% of national needs, up from 31% in 2009 and only 13% in 2006.

Cereal production
(tonnes)
 2009/102010/11% change
Groundnut1,032,6511,063,6523.0
Cotton22,09027,85126.1
Sorghum1,035,0771,065,4942.9
Maize328,644306,184-6.8
Rice502,104598,09319.1
Source: Direction de l'analyse et de la prévision statistique.

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Although domestic demand is increasingly being met by domestic production, GOANA's objective of self-sufficiency is still far from being achieved. Moreover, the data's accuracy and validity are often questioned by local experts. In the case of rice, the Comité interprofessionnel du riz suggests that Senegal is more likely to be producing a maximum of 350,000 tonnes of paddy, equivalent to around 230,000 tonnes of white rice, and this is view is echoed by a local rice expert, Saliou Sarr. Indeed, official production and import numbers imply that rice consumption per head has fluctuated implausibly, from 79.7 kg in 2007 to 107.3 kg in 2008, dropping again, to 82.1 kg, in 2010. Similar reports have been given on past harvests of maize and on groundnut production in the last two seasons. In fact, there are inconsistencies between official production figures of over 1m tonnes of groundnuts, the usual assumptions about consumption and local demand, and recorded "official circuit" groundnut purchases, which are unlikely to exceed the 300,000 tonnes in 2010/11. Nevertheless, the trend is one of improving output.

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Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
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