From an upwardly revised estimate of 4.2% in 2010-albeit restrained by chronic power shortages that the government has ascertained cost the country 1.4% in lost growth-real GDP growth should accelerate slightly in 2011, to 4.3%, driven by the government's ambitious infrastructure investment programme. After a record year in 2010, agricultural output will continue to improve, driven by increased government investment in the horticultural subsector, despite the withdrawal of some government marketing subsidies, reducing the impact of record global commodity prices as import demand moderates. Industrial production should rise in 2011-12 as power supply problems are gradually resolved, and phosphates output continues to recover. Services should grow well, led by banking and the mobile-phone subsector. Domestic demand, restrained by higher consumer prices in 2011 will accelerate in 2012; government spending will be sustained ahead of the 2012 elections, supporting real GDP growth of 4.5% in 2012. Deepening ties with China will also boost growth and investment.

Much depends on the government's strategy to resolve the power crisis, which would boost the commercial and industrial sectors. Progress on increasing power-generation and oil-refining capacity will be slow. Improving the perceptions of corruption and streamlining the bureaucratic business environment will be fundamental to encouraging foreign direct investment.