Country Report Senegal April 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Election watch

Mr Wade's candidacy for the 2012 presidential election on February 26th remains in place for now, having seemingly neutralised internal PDS dissent from the mayor of Thiès, Idrissa Seck, although, with party support for Mr Wade fraying, Mr Seck may be a leading contender to replace him. Despite waning popularity in the cities, the president retains strong rural support, as well as among religious groups. Turning opposition to Mr Wade into electoral victory will not be easy, and he will exploit the opposition's disunity. Such rivalry could strain the informal opposition alliances that contributed to the rout of the PDS in local polls in March 2009. Unity may yet be preserved by the coalition around a popular singer and businessman, Youssou N'dour, and his political awareness movement, Fekke ma ci boole, or the Mouvement politique citoyen, led by a former justice minister, Cheikh Tidiane Gadio. Other leading opposition figures include a former prime minister, Macky Sall; the Parti socialiste (PS) leader, Ousmane Tanor Dieng; and Khalifa Sall, the popular PS mayor of the capital, Dakar. Another anti-Wade group, Terminus 2012, was launched in August by a former World Bank consultant, Amadou Guéye. Although the PDS's parliamentary majority grew in 2007 as a result of the opposition's electoral boycott, the party is still likely to remain in power come the 2012 National Assembly elections. Nonetheless, a victory for Mr Wade-currently the Economist Intelligence Unit's core scenario-could provoke widespread protests, although concrete improvements in the power-supply situation may be enough to save him.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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