Country Report Senegal April 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Political stability

Senegal has, since independence, enjoyed one of the most democratically developed and stable polities in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, this is coming under increasing threat from the controversial intention of the president, Abdoulaye Wade, to run for a third term in the 2012 election. Having stated his intention last September, Mr Wade secured the backing of the steering committee of the Parti démocratique sénégalais (PDS), which dominates the ruling Sopi coalition and the National Assembly, buttressed by the reshuffle and expansion of the cabinet last June. Nevertheless, in addition to the multiplicity of overlapping portfolios arousing public ire for its wastefulness and reduced effectiveness of policymaking and implementation, Mr Wade's internal support is showing signs of fraying. Talk of Mr Wade's son and key minister, Karim Wade, running instead remains subdued, but questions are emerging amongst the party leadership about whether, constitutionality notwithstanding, Mr Wade remains best-placed to secure the party's dominance. Karim Wade's presidential ambitions should not be ruled out for the future, but should Mr Wade decide not to run-whether for age and health reasons or because of waning party support-it remains unclear who would succeed him, given his personality-driven ruling style. The party could face a destabilising power struggle.

Legality is the bigger objection; the 2001 constitution limits presidents to two terms, but Mr Wade's allies assert his eligibility for a third, as it would be his second under the revised constitution. Appointing a new president of the Constitutional Council is an attempt to head off such legal challenges, while the return of Mr Wade's trusted ally, Ousmane Ngom, to the Ministry of the Interior will help to overcome constitutional and electoral hurdles.

Opposition parties will seek to capitalise on deep popular discontent over long-standing problems such as worsening power shortages, high unemployment and poor social welfare provision, with protests having broken out over recent electricity outages, high telephone charges, poor governance and Mr Wade's electoral intentions. The government will continue to strive to improve energy security, but the state's limited capacity to implement policy and the government's mixed signals regarding fiscal discipline may hinder progress.

The insurgency in the Casamance region, led by the separatist Mouvement des forces démocratiques de la Casamance (MFDC), has flared up sporadically for nearly three decades, with little progress since talks failed in 2005. Although some military success in early 2010 prompted calls from some MFDC leaders for a ceasefire and negotiation, violence has since intensified, with Iran blamed for supplying the rebels' more sophisticated weaponry. That the MFDC remains splintered into rival factions is also an obstacle to the negotiation of a comprehensive peace deal. Furthermore, as rebel groups vie for dominance amid an increasingly unsupportive local population, they are resorting more to banditry to fund their operations. The drug-trafficking that has affected Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Mauritania is becoming increasingly problematic in Senegal as narcotics seizures increase in size and frequency, despite the US-funded African Maritime Law Enforcement Partnership programme.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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