The government has announced that it expects the fiscal deficit to average around 6% of GDP in 2010-12. However, government expectations for revenue and oil prices tend to be conservative, and the government usually fails to disburse its spending allocations fully. We estimate that the budget deficit was actually 4.5% of GDP in 2010. In 2011 we expect the deficit to contract to 1.7% of GDP, further below the projection of the government, which has not accounted for windfall revenue from converting existing mobile-phone contracts into licences and awarding a licence to a third operator. In 2012 continued strong growth in capital expenditure-following the government's five-year plan to boost investment-without exceptional increases in revenue will lead to a widening of the deficit to 5.3% of GDP. Plans to reform public enterprises-most of which are unprofitable-by transforming them into autonomous companies with their own budgets should have a net positive impact on the public finances, and some privatisations are possible.