Country Report Syria March 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: International relations

After facing diplomatic isolation in 2005-07, Syria has developed better ties with Western and regional states. However, the collapse of the Saudi-Syrian initiative to bolster political stability in Lebanon in January will test Syria's relations with Saudi Arabia and the West. The fall of the Lebanese national unity government and subsequent nomination of Najib Mikati as prime minister, who is close to both Syria and Hizbullah, a Lebanese militant group and Syrian ally, marks greater Syrian involvement in its neighbour. However, Syria is nervous of Hizbullah's growing independence, and Hizbullah is wary of being used as a bargaining chip by Syria.

Despite these developments, the EU is now ready to sign a long-delayed Association Agreement, and final negotiations are ongoing. Relations with the US have improved, and although US sanctions on Syria were renewed in May 2010, the US has withdrawn its objections to Syria's accession to the World Trade Organisation, and the US ambassador, Robert Ford, finally took up his position on January 16th. However, Syria's continued alliance with Iran and its support for Hizbullah and Hamas, the Palestinian group that controls Gaza, present ongoing difficulties. There is also opposition to closer ties with Syria within the US Congress. Regional unrest will prompt further debates within the US administration over its Middle East policy, which could affect relations with Syria. An investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency into Syria's alleged nuclear programme also poses a threat.

Talks with Israel are unlikely to yield results, despite recognition by the US of Syria's importance to the peace process. Syria has shown a willingness to resume peace talks if based on Israel's full withdrawal from the Golan Heights (captured from Syria in 1967). However, there is little support in Israel for a withdrawal. Syria would be required to end its alliance with Iran and its support for Hizbullah and Hamas, as part of any agreement, which would be politically difficult but not impossible.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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