Despite the fall of the governments of Tunisia and Egypt in early 2011, and the continuing popular unrest in other Middle Eastern countries, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, and his ruling Baath party to retain their grip on the country, supported by key elements in the security services. The core of the elite is drawn from Mr Assad's Alawi sect, and any move against him could endanger its hold on power. Resentment of Alawi rule and friction between reformers and conservatives mean that tensions within the regime are likely to persist.

Only limited progress is expected on political reform in 2011-12. Although the possibility of domestic dissent will provide the incentive to make at least a few cosmetic changes, it is hard to envisage any steps being taken that would significantly diminish the Baath party's hold on power. Mr Assad initially advocated political reform when he came to power in 2000, but he has acknowledged that the pace of change has been slow. He has pledged to increase popular participation in the political process by introducing a political parties law, which would create a second chamber of parliament, the Majlis al-Shura-in addition to the existing lower chamber, the Majlis al-Shaab. He also pledged to devise a local administration law that would introduce greater decentralisation. However, the security and intelligence services, which are pervasive and effective, will continue to arrest activists who demand democratic reform; they have focused particularly on online activists since the regional unrest began. Syria faces numerous accusations of torture and unfair trial of political prisoners. The various opposition-in-exile groups and domestic critics are unlikely to pose a substantive threat to the government.