Real GDP grew by 0.8% year on year in the first four months, slower than the 1.6% expansion in the first quarter and the 5% expansion in January-April 2010. Continuing the trend of recent months, the smaller non-oil sector was the driver of growth in the first fourth months. The non-oil sector expanded by 6.2% year on year, whereas the oil sector contracted by 4%. The non-oil sector accounted for around 47% of nominal GDP in the first four months.

Reinforcing the buoyant conditions in the non-oil sector, data from the SSC show that all components of the services sector grew in January-April. The communications sector recorded the largest year-on-year increase, expanding by 18.7% (although its contribution to headline growth is small, as it accounts for around 2% of total GDP). Hotels and restaurants, and trade and warehousing, also grew significantly in real terms, by 16.2% and 10.1% year on year, respectively. The government forecasts that real GDP will expand by 3.8% in 2011. The IMF raised its real GDP forecast to 2.8% (from 1.8%) in April 2011.