Country Report Azerbaijan June 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Election watch

The next presidential poll is scheduled for October 2013. Although the risks to Mr Aliyev's position will be higher over the forecast period, the regime's dominance over the media and ability to use administrative resources will mean that when Mr Aliyev decides to stand, he is highly likely to win. The next parliamentary election is scheduled for November 2015. At the legislative election in November 2010 Mr Aliyev's New Azerbaijan Party (NAP) won a landslide victory, although international observers raised concerns over the NAP's use of administrative resources and the bias in media coverage. The opposition failed to win a single seat. This will make it impossible for traditional opposition parties to express their points of view in state institutions, and will increase the potential of the opposition holding protests and demonstrations in order to get its voice heard. Over the forecast period the opposition's operations will nonetheless be hampered by a lack of access to the media, restrictions on demonstrations, and limited financial resources.

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