The president, Ilham Aliyev, has been in power since 2003, following the death of his father, Heydar Aliyev. Power is concentrated in the president, and Mr Aliyev appears to have control over the country's political structures. However, the fundamental shift and potential democratising wave that could be under way in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)-which has resulted in protests against, and the removal of, long-standing authoritarian leaders-raises the question of whether authoritarian countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) such as Azerbaijan could be affected by similar trends.

The wave of protests in MENA has inspired opposition groups in Azerbaijan to hold similar protests. Since March 2011 several opposition parties and movements have staged anti-government protests in the capital, Baku. So far the number of protesters has been small. Further protests are likely to be held in the near term. The small number of people participating in the demonstrations indicates that the opposition's ability to pose a threat to the status quo is limited. However, the same applied in Tunisia and Egypt, only to change rapidly. Should the opposition hold protests on a more frequent basis and the number of people participating in the demonstrations increase, the risk to the Aliyev regime would rise.

Mr Aliyev will face a more testing second term in office. The development of the energy sector led to rapid economic growth in the past decade. As oil production growth will be much slower over the forecast period, this will weigh on economic growth prospects, increasing the potential for further unrest as real wage growth slows. Aside from the experience of the corrosive effect of energy-based development, the Aliyev regime and those in MENA also share the similarity of entrenched corruption. (Signalling their concern over how they are perceived by the public, the authorities began implementing an anti-corruption campaign in February 2011.)

Unlike the MENA states, Azerbaijan remains an overwhelmingly secular society. However, the strength of the Islamic community, which is drawing inspiration from Turkish and Iranian religious groups, has grown in recent years, and is a cause for concern for the authorities. In late December 2010 and January 2011 there were protests, albeit significantly smaller than in MENA, against the administration's earlier decision to ban the wearing of the hijab in schools. There is a risk that the government's mishandling of issues deemed sensitive by the growing community of practising Muslims, and any encroachment on religious liberties, could become a source of social unrest. The risks to the Aliyev regime would also increase if the economic slowdown were to be more severe than the Economist Intelligence Unit currently forecasts.