Country Report Oman January 2011

The political scene: Census raises questions over size of expatriate population

Oman undertook a general census in mid-December, the preliminary results of which were released less than a week later. The national economy minister and general supervisor of the census, Ahmed bin Abdulnabi Macki, presented the preliminary results. The total population was found to be just under 2.7m, an increase of 15%, or 350,000 people, since the last census conducted in 2003. However it is 15% lower than the most recent estimated figure (for mid-2009), published by the Ministry of National Economy just prior to the census, of nearly 3.2m. Most of the difference can be accounted for by the size of the expatriate population, which the census results showed to be nearly 750,000, compared with the ministry's most recent estimate of 1.2m in mid-2009, a discrepancy of 400,000. The census figures indicate that the expatriate population has risen by just over one-third since 2003.

The discrepancy raises inevitable questions about the accuracy of the census and the estimates of the expatriate population. Whereas the Omani population has nothing to fear from the process, many expatriate labourers, mostly from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, would have regarded the census with suspicion. This would have been particularly so coming at the end of 2010, a year in which the government imposed a major crackdown on those in the country illegally, or those working for several employers, in breach of their work permits. In an acknowledgment of the problem, Mr Macki confirmed to reporters that census field staff had indeed faced difficulties, particularly with regard to expatriates. Many expatriates evaded the enumerators as they were "runaways" from their sponsors, while others were temporarily out of the country as the census coincided with school holidays and was held just before Christmas. At a press conference in early January to unveil the eighth five–year plan, Mr Macki was asked about the conflicting figures and replied that according to the Royal Oman Police, 250,000 expatriates were out of the country at the time of the census, and data from the Ministry of Manpower suggests that up to 80,000 expatriates have absconded.

The figures are broken down to show the size of the Omani and expatriate populations, respectively. In Oman the expatriate workforce is present in the country entirely at the discretion of the employer and the government, and individuals can be sent home at any time, with no notice. Expatriates who have been in relatively senior positions in government service for more than 25 years are eligible to apply for Omani citizenship, but it is only granted to a very limited number.

Preliminary results of 2010 census
20102003
Av size of Omani household (no.)7.58
Omani population below the age of 15 (%)3541
Omanis in the labour force age group 15-64 (%)6156
Omani women participating in the labour force (%)2722
Illiteracy rate in Omani population (%)1222
Personal use of computers among Omanis (%)5316
Personal use of the Internet among Omanis (%)337
Households supplied by water networks and government water points (%)8875
Source: Ministry of National Economy

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This was the third census to be carried out in Oman; the first took place in 1993. It was the first time that an online self-reporting system had been used as one of the methods for collecting information. Technical difficulties resulted in the census being delayed from April to December. Full results of the census are expected to be published in the third week of January.

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