Having widened substantially in 2010 after narrowing in 2009, the trade surplus is expected to increase further in 2011 and 2012, buoyed by higher export revenue. Exports are forecast to grow by an average of 7.2% over the forecast period, boosted by oil prices and the continued development of Oman's sea ports, which will boost re-export trade. Imports will also grow strongly in 2011-12, owing to an increase in demand for consumption goods. The trade surplus is forecast to widen to US$17.6bn in 2011 and US$18.1bn in 2012.

The services deficit is forecast to widen in 2011-12, in spite of plans by the government to develop infrastructure to attract tourists. Any increase in tourism receipts will be offset by an increase in payments to cover the cost of EOR projects. We forecast that the non-merchandise deficit will widen to an average of US$15.3bn in 2011-12. The current transfers deficit will increase marginally in 2011-12, compared with 2010. The income deficit is likely to widen in 2011-12, in part because of a rise in interest payments on Oman's external debt. We estimate that the current account will have moved from a deficit in 2009 to a surplus (3% of GDP) in 2010. The current-account surplus is forecast to widen in 2011-12, to an average of 4% of GDP, in line with the widening trade surplus.