Oman's ties with its most important international allies-the US and the UK-will remain strong over the forecast period. Oman has a long history of association with British military and defence institutions. However, relationships with Asian countries, especially India and China, will continue to strengthen. Oman also has good relations with Iran and will thus continue to monitor the ongoing dispute over Iran's nuclear programme with some discomfort. In the 31st annual summit of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), Oman praised recent efforts by the P5+1 group (the permanent members of the UN security council plus Germany) to solve the Iranian nuclear crisis through peaceful means. In August 2009 the sultan visited Iran for the first time since the 1979 Islamic revolution, signalling Oman's willingness to engage directly with the country during a period of heightened international tension. Oman is therefore likely to maintain cordial relations with its Western allies as well as with Iran. With the increasing isolation of Iran from the international community, this will allow Oman to act as a bridge between the West and Iran, increasing the importance of its role as a mediator.

Oman advocates a strong diplomatic approach to the Middle East's other political issues, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It has publicly supported the unity of its neighbour, Yemen, following rising instability, and will continue to watch developments there with concern. Given the political, economic and military importance of Oman's historical links to the West, we expect no change in the sultanate's pro-Western foreign policy in 2011-12.