The long-established structures of political power are expected to remain stable over the forecast period. The sultan, Qaboos bin Said al-Said, celebrated 40 years in power on National Day on November 18th, which also coincided with his 70th birthday. He is believed to command wide popular support and has used Oman's oil wealth to develop infrastructure and to improve education and healthcare services, both of which are given priority in the 2011 budget. However, the sultan retains all the decision-making power, a fact which is captured in the Economist Intelligence Unit's 2010 democracy index. Oman slips three places in the index to 143rd out of 167 countries, owing to a fall in its score for political culture and its extremely poor score for the electoral process. The government is appointed by the sultan, who is also the prime minister and holds the defence, finance and foreign affairs portfolios. The last government reshuffle in late 2007 had little effect on policy, and any future reshuffle would be expected to have a similarly limited impact.

The biggest political risk in 2011-12 is likely to be uncertainty over who will succeed the long-serving sultan. The sultan has no children, and none of the three first cousins widely viewed as the leading candidates to succeed him has yet been trusted with substantial executive power. The most prominent among these is Asad bin Tariq al-Said, who is currently a special representative of the sultan.

The final decision on who will succeed Sultan Qaboos will not be made until after his death, when family members will have three days to choose a successor. Should they prove unable to agree, a letter left by the sultan naming his choice of successor will be opened, and that person will become the new leader. The system is untested and unusual-Arab monarchies tend to have named crown princes. However, with the Defence Council (a powerful extra-parliamentary body tasked with co-ordinating the actions of the country's various security forces) responsible for ensuring that the sultan's wishes are obeyed, and given that the ruling family has a clear incentive to manage the transition with the minimum of disruption, it is likely that the immediate transfer of power will be effected without dispute. The main risks are likely to arise in the longer term, if the sultan's successor proves unable to contain the latent divisions within Omani society.