Country Report Kenya February 2011

Economic policy: The IMF approves a major new funding package

In a major boost to government coffers-and signalling confidence in Kenyan policy-the IMF executive board in late January approved a three-year extended credit facility (ECF) worth US$509m, of which US$102m has already been disbursed. The ECF represents the IMF's largest-ever package for Kenya-far exceeding the US$209m awarded in May 2009 at the height of the global recession-and is geared towards bolstering Kenya's external accounts and relieving pressure on the budget, in order to relax constraints on growth. Kenya's foreign-exchange reserves are relatively healthy and rose by 10% to US$4.3bn in the year to November 2010-representing three to four months of import cover-but this provides a relatively thin cushion in case of shocks, especially given the country's persistent current-account deficit, which is likely to climb higher as faster GDP growth sucks in imports. The ECF will in addition support the budget and key fiscal reforms, including the transfer of some budgetary powers to the county level under the new constitution. The ECF also heralds a new phase of fiscal consolidation (after policy was loosened during the global downturn)-via tax reforms and spending controls-in order to keep public debt in check. However, finding the right balance will be tricky, given the costs of implementing the new constitution and the urgent need to invest in infrastructure.

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