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Country Report Kenya February 2011
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HTMLOutlook for 2011-15: Forecast summary
| Forecast summary | ||||||
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
| 2010a | 2011b | 2012b | 2013b | 2014b | 2015b | |
| Real GDP growth | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| Industrial production growth | 4.5 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Gross agricultural production growth | 4.7 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Consumer price inflation (av) | 4.0c | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 5.8 |
| Consumer price inflation (end-period) | 4.5c | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| Lending rate (av) | 14.4 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 11.0 |
| Government balance (% of GDP)d | -7.0 | -6.5 | -6.2 | -5.7 | -5.0 | -4.6 |
| Exports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 5.2 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 8.4 |
| Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 10.6 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 14.0 |
| Current-account balance (US$ bn) | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.6 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -1.1 |
| Current-account balance (% of GDP) | -5.9 | -5.3 | -4.6 | -3.4 | -2.9 | -2.4 |
| External debt (end-period; US$ bn) | 8.0 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 9.5 |
| Exchange rate KSh:US$ (av) | 79.17c | 81.79 | 83.50 | 85.75 | 85.65 | 85.00 |
| Exchange rate KSh:US$ (end-period) | 80.75c | 82.40 | 84.00 | 86.80 | 86.00 | 86.00 |
| Exchange rate KSh:¥100 (av) | 89.97c | 99.25 | 101.35 | 105.86 | 104.29 | 101.80 |
| Exchange rate KSh:€ (end-period) | 108.21c | 98.88 | 99.96 | 101.56 | 100.19 | 101.00 |
| a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Actual. d Fiscal year. | ||||||
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