The focus will increasingly switch to the next election (in 2012) as politicians jostle for position. Mr Kibaki will be obliged to stand down after serving two five-year terms, sparking increasingly bitter competition between those seeking to take his mantle as PNU leader. Possible front-runners are the finance minister, Uhuru Kenyatta; the security minister, George Saitoti; and the vice-president, Kalonzo Musyoka-although Mr Kenyatta's prospects could be scuppered after being named by the ICC as an alleged instigator of post-election violence. The PNU, which was created as a vehicle for Mr Kibaki, will not survive in its present form and will be remoulded into a new alliance. Mr Odinga faces similar divisions within the broad-based ODM and will struggle to keep the party's factions together. A group led by William Ruto (another ICC suspect), who led the campaign against the new constitution, seems set to break away. Mr Odinga, health permitting, is likely to be the ODM's presidential candidate and has a fair chance of victory, helped by his strong support for the new constitution. However, it is too soon to pick an election winner, and further realignments in the political spectrum will take place before the ballot. The formation of a new election commission and other reforms will reduce the danger of election-related instability, but the closer the contest the higher the risk. The new president will face a considerably altered landscape because of the structural reforms envisaged by the new constitution.