Kenya's political environment will be dominated by the challenge of implementing the new constitution and the prospect of fresh elections in 2012. Kenyans approved a new constitution by a two-to-one margin last August in a free and fair ballot that was not marred by violence, offering the prospect of more consensual and accountable politics in the future. The next election may therefore prove to be less divisive (than the bitterly disputed ballot in 2007) and could usher in a period of relative stability, but downside risks persist. The co-operation shown by both main parties-the Party of National Unity (PNU) of the president, Mwai Kibaki, and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) of the prime minister, Raila Odinga-in supporting the new constitution (despite dissenting voices on both sides) lies in stark contrast to the partisan in-fighting that has marked the grand coalition's tenure to date, but inter-party relations will remain tense. Kenya will retain a presidential system under the new constitution, but with new "checks and balances" and a clearer separation of powers. Significant changes include the devolution of power to the county level; the establishment of an upper house of parliament (the Senate) to oversee county-level affairs; the introduction of a bill of rights and a supreme court; and the abolition of the post of prime minister. The constitution also calls for a new anti-corruption agency and an independent land commission to tackle the thorny issue of land reform.

However, the referendum and the promulgation of the new constitution are not the final steps in the search for a new dispensation but simply a starting point, and there will be little change in the short term. The bulk of the provisions in the constitution, including the formation of a new-style legislature and executive, will not come into force until the next government is formed after the 2012 election. Some provisions will come in earlier and some later (the constitution lays out a timetable spanning one to five years) but in all cases enabling legislation will first need to be drafted and approved, which raises the danger of further in-fighting and delay. Moreover, parliamentary capacity will be stretched to the limit by the need to pass almost 50 pieces of constitutional legislation, as well as other pending bills. The PNU and the ODM will need to co-operate to meet the deadlines-but a fresh row in 2011 about judicial reform highlights the challenges. If legislators fail to keep pace (or prove deliberately obstructive), the new constitution allows for an early dissolution of parliament pending fresh elections. A new parliament would then be tasked with passing the necessary laws. The new constitution is not perfect, however, and there are legitimate worries about the cost of expanding the size of parliament (from 222 seats to 350) and paying for the Senate and the new counties.

The main threat to sociopolitical stability in the medium term is the return of civil unrest on the scale witnessed after the disputed election in December 2007. The formation of a grand coalition government stemmed the crisis, but future stability will require the settlement of long-term grievances over land and other rights, plus an end to the culture of impunity. In a major step towards dealing with alleged perpetrators of post-election violence, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Luis Moreno-Ocampo, in December revealed the names of six prominent Kenyans alleged to be key instigators, including two serving cabinet ministers and the head of the civil service. The prosecutor recommends that they be summoned to give evidence in The Hague rather than issued with arrest warrants, but the decision rests with the ICC pre-trial chamber, which will rule in early 2011. If a trial goes ahead, it will not happen until 2012, an election year, which could stoke fresh tensions and protests, but it would also serve as a timely warning to Kenya's leadership. Kenya promises to co-operate with the ICC but seeks a delay, while some in the political establishment will continue to resist. Positive steps are being taken but the medium-term risks remain significant.