Year-on-year inflation jumped to 6.1% in December and 6.4% in January as the base effect of low inflation in the second half of 2009 dropped out of the year-on-year calculation and higher global commodity prices and currency depreciation raised the cost of a range of goods. Rising global commodity prices, particularly food and oil prices, will continue to stoke inflation in 2011. Average 12-month inflation is therefore forecast to rise from 2.9% in 2010 to 7.4% in 2011. In 2012, as world commodity prices fall, inflation will decline to 5.2%.