Real GDP growth in Mauritius is forecast to fall from an estimated 4% in 2010 to 3.7-3.9% in 2011-12 as the economic recovery slows in Europe and the US-the destination of more than 70% of Mauritius's exports. Sugar production appears to be failing to respond to the programme for restructuring the sector, now in its fifth year, and sugar's contribution to the economy appears set to continue its decline. Fishing output will benefit from investment in shore-based facilities, but the state of fish stocks will be the determining factor. Manufacturing growth will slow then accelerate, in response to falling then rising demand in Europe and the US, and construction should benefit from investment in infrastructure, as well as easier credit.

The growth of tourism will slow in 2011 in response to slacker demand in Europe, the origin of around 65% of tourists to Mauritius, and the weaker euro; growth will pick up in 2012 as economic conditions in Europe stabilise. Financial sector growth will be buoyant as economic activity picks up generally and as rapid economic expansion continues in India, for which Mauritius is a major conduit of foreign investment. The growth of world trade in 2011-12 will benefit Mauritius as an international shipping hub.