Although the idea that elections could be held any time soon in war-torn Somalia was always unrealistic, the unilateral approach of the two institutions and total disregard for donors' concerns will exert further strain on already difficult relations. In January the TFG indicated that it was in no hurry to finalise a new constitution, doubling the size of the Independent Constitutional Commission (ICC) and embarking on lengthy consultations with a broad range of Somali stakeholders (February 2011, The political scene). Although an extension of the TFG's mandate would be unconstitutional, it could at least buy some time for the ICC to complete its task.

Donors may be unhappy about the situation, but if they were to cut off aid to the transitional institutions, their total collapse would follow rapidly. Without donor funds, there would be no means to pay the TFG troops, many of whom would probably defect with their weapons to the Islamist militia they are currently fighting or to local warlords. Given this unappetising prospect, interested foreign powers are likely to maintain their aid commitments, letting the status quo limp on amid meagre efforts to change the situation. This was demonstrated by the TFG's refusal to participate in a conference to be held by the UN in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, in mid-April. Despite the government's boycott, the special representative for Somalia, Augustine Mahiga, has declared that the event will go ahead, even though it is largely aimed at finding ways to improve relations between the FTP and the TFG. The conference will bring together many of the same representatives of Somali factions that have participated in previous fruitless conferences, so we expect little of substance to result from this one, whether or not the government participates.