As was expected-with some trepidation-by international donors, the Federal Transitional Parliament (FTP) extended its own mandate by three years in February. The unilateral extension by the FTP was sharply criticised by donors, including the EU and US, for further destabilising an already failing nation-building process. The speaker of the FTP, Sharif Hasan Shaykh Adan, has defended the move as being supported by the vast majority of the parliament's 550 members. However, this is hardly surprising, as the extension of the parliament means they will continue to draw generous salaries and enjoy opportunities for patronage. The FTP has been an ineffectual talking-shop to date, with precious little to show for the money spent propping it up. Indeed, it has not passed a single law in its six years of existence.

The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) rejected the FTP's declaration of a three-year extension as illegitimate. However, the president, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, is powerless to stop it. (There have long been tensions between Mr Adan and Mr Ahmed, who compete for dominance over the feeble transitional institutions.) However, despite this condemnation of the FTP's extension and earlier pledges to hold a presidential election once the TFG's mandate expires in August this year, the transitional administration promptly announced an one-year extension of its own mandate.

This move also displeased the TFG's exasperated donors and other interested foreign powers. Unsurprisingly, Mr Adan and the FTP have reciprocally denounced the prolongation of the TFG's mandate as illegal. The UN has pointed out that, under the Federal Transitional Charter, the TFG needs the approval of the legislature to extend its mandate. However, this does not mean that the transitional government will back down. How the standoff will play out when the TFG's original mandate ends in August is difficult to determine. On balance, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects a face-saving compromise to be reached. The current TFG may accept being reshuffled after August 2011, including some changes of leadership by the FTP. Although plausible, this scenario is by no means a certainty. Mr Ahmed has disappointed his Western backers, as he has largely failed to increase popular support for the TFG through strategic alliances with other Somali groups. As a result, there is certainly appetite among international donors for replacing Mr Ahmed, but whether this can be accomplished without even greater turmoil is unclear.