Country Report Zambia April 2010

Outlook for 2010-11: International assumptions

International assumptions summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
 2008200920102011
Real GDP growth
World2.9-0.93.83.5
OECD0.5-3.42.11.6
EU270.7-4.20.91.1
Exchange rates
¥:US$103.493.790.990.0
US$:€1.4701.3931.3651.393
SDR:US$0.6290.6460.6500.642
Financial indicators
€ 3-month interbank rate4.651.230.700.93
US$ 3-month Libor2.910.690.630.93
Commodity prices
Oil (Brent; US$/b)97.761.977.073.0
Gold (US$/troy oz)8729731,1501,214
Copper (US cents/lb)316234321323
Industrial raw materials (% change in US$ terms)-5.1-25.631.50.6
Note. Regional GDP growth rates weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates.

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World GDP is forecast to start to recover in 2010, growing by 3.8%, led by Asia. Growth is expected to dip fractionally in 2011, as there is likely to be a stutter in Western economies as the fiscal stimulus packages run out. Global prices for copper, Zambia's main export commodity, are expected to recover strongly, to 321 US cents/lb in 2010 and 323 US cents/lb in 2011, as Asian demand, particularly from China, continues to surge. Oil prices are expected to increase to US$77/barrel in 2010, before falling to US$73/b in 2011 as supply increases while demand slows in the West as the fiscal stimulus packages run out.

© 2010 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
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