Country Report Zambia April 2010

Outlook for 2010-11: International assumptions

International assumptions summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
Real GDP growth
Exchange rates
Financial indicators
€ 3-month interbank rate4.651.230.700.93
US$ 3-month Libor2.910.690.630.93
Commodity prices
Oil (Brent; US$/b)97.761.977.073.0
Gold (US$/troy oz)8729731,1501,214
Copper (US cents/lb)316234321323
Industrial raw materials (% change in US$ terms)-5.1-25.631.50.6
Note. Regional GDP growth rates weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates.

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World GDP is forecast to start to recover in 2010, growing by 3.8%, led by Asia. Growth is expected to dip fractionally in 2011, as there is likely to be a stutter in Western economies as the fiscal stimulus packages run out. Global prices for copper, Zambia's main export commodity, are expected to recover strongly, to 321 US cents/lb in 2010 and 323 US cents/lb in 2011, as Asian demand, particularly from China, continues to surge. Oil prices are expected to increase to US$77/barrel in 2010, before falling to US$73/b in 2011 as supply increases while demand slows in the West as the fiscal stimulus packages run out.

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