Consumer price inflation is forecast to accelerate to 14.9% in 2011, from 9% in 2010, before slowing to an average rate of 7.9% a year in 2012-15. The acceleration this year partly reflects supply-side pressures stemming from rising international commodity prices. We expect crude oil prices (dated Brent Blend) to rise by nearly 27% this year and global food prices to rise by 29%. Global commodity prices will fall in 2012, however, and are expected to remain relatively stable in 2013-15, and this will help to calm supply-side price pressures. However, strong demand-side pressures will continue to push up the overall price level. Although the authorities appear intent on slowing the pace of growth in domestic credit, the target for this year has been lowered only slightly from 23% to below 20%. We therefore still forecast that the stock of domestic credit will rise by an average rate of around 20% a year in 2011-15. The continued depreciation of the dong against the US dollar over the next five years will also serve to make imports more expensive.