Country Report Vietnam April 2011

Outlook for 2011-15: Monetary policy

The SBV has taken aggressive steps to tighten monetary policy in recent months, pushing up its policy rates by up to 6 percentage points since November 2010. However, the central bank's general approach to monetary policy has been somewhat inconsistent, and this is likely to remain the case in the forecast period. The SBV's main objective will be to combat inflation, but it will be under pressure to ensure that the cost of financing does not undermine economic growth. The policy tools available to the central bank include a mix of both direct and indirect instruments. In the past few months the SBV has increased its refinance and discount rates in an attempt to slow the expansion of credit. In early 2010 it removed the cap on commercial bank lending rates, which had been previously limited to 1.5 times the base rate, rendering the rate ineffective as a tool to influence monetary conditions. However, the central bank announced a cap on deposit rates in late 2010, and, in March 2011, warned that it would double reserve requirements for banks that fail to reduce the ratio of lending to non-productive activities (as a percentage of total lending), to below 16% by the end of the year. The measures that have been taken so far are unlikely to be sufficient to cool an overheated economy, and, with the CPV endorsing a five-year plan targeting annual real GDP growth of 7­7.5% and maximum inflation of 7% a year, the SBV could come under pressure to loosen its policy stance if there is a risk that growth will remain below the target rate.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
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