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Country Report Hong Kong June 2011
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HTMLOutlook for 2011-15: Forecast summary
| Forecast summary | ||||||
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||
| 2010a | 2011b | 2012b | 2013b | 2014b | 2015b | |
| Real GDP growth | 6.8 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| Industrial production growth | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 3.5 |
| Gross fixed investment growth | 8.1 | -1.7 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| Unemployment rate (av) | 4.4c | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Consumer price inflation (av) | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Consumer price inflation (end-period) | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Short-term interbank rate (av) | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 10.0 |
| Government balance (% of GDP)d | 3.5c | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Exports of goods fob (US$ bn)e | 394.0 | 439.2 | 473.8 | 502.9 | 544.3 | 593.0 |
| Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) | 437.0 | 485.1 | 527.4 | 565.4 | 621.8 | 687.2 |
| Current-account balance (US$ bn) | 14.8 | 23.5 | 27.5 | 27.3 | 26.7 | 24.7 |
| Current-account balance (% of GDP) | 6.6 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 8.0 |
| External debt (year-end; US$ bn) | 49.8c | 69.4 | 71.3 | 73.1 | 77.4 | 76.2 |
| Exchange rate HK$:US$ (av) | 7.77 | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.80 |
| Exchange rate HK$:US$ (end-period) | 7.78 | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.80 |
| Exchange rate HK$:¥100 (av) | 8.84 | 9.54 | 9.63 | 9.63 | 9.50 | 9.34 |
| Exchange rate HK$:€ (end-period) | 10.56 | 10.30 | 9.91 | 9.44 | 9.71 | 10.07 |
| a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. d Fiscal years (beginning April 1st of year indicated). e Derived from Hong Kong dollar series and annual average exchange rates. | ||||||
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© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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