The current-account surplus will remain large in 2011-15, at the equivalent of almost 10% of GDP on average. Merchandise exports rebounded strongly in 2010, following their slump in 2009. However, persistently weak economic growth in important OECD markets will hold back export expansion in 2011-15 compared with the rates of growth in overseas sales that were achieved in the pre-crisis period. Combined with strong import growth, stoked by domestic demand, this makes it likely that the merchandise trade deficit will widen significantly in the forecast period. But in balance-of-payments terms this will be offset by the surging services surplus-a consequence of Hong Kong's role as a financial services entrepôt to mainland China, and of the large number of tourists who visit the territory. The rising volume of merchandise trade will also push up exports of port and logistics services. The income account will stay in surplus during the forecast period, reflecting earnings from the territory's foreign-exchange reserves and the large stock of overseas investments held by local residents. Repatriation of earnings by expatriates resident in the territory will mean that the transfers account remains slightly in deficit.