The HKMA has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar, and no change to this policy is expected in 2011-15. Our central assumption is that Hong Kong's large foreign-exchange reserves, supplemented by its substantial fiscal reserves and its current-account surplus, will enable the HKMA to resist pressure to alter its exchange-rate policy. Given the potential for volatility in world financial and foreign-exchange markets in the next two years, the currency peg will remain an important source of economic stability in Hong Kong. There will nevertheless be increasing discussion of the options for moving away from the US dollar peg and towards a closer link to China's renminbi, perhaps via a peg to a basket of currencies, as is used in Singapore. The timing of such a move (which will not occur during the forecast period) will depend partly on how quickly China opens its capital account.