The Hong Kong government recorded a budget surplus estimated at 3.5% of GDP in 2010/11. This impressive result, achieved as the territory emerged from a deep economic recession, largely reflected strong revenue inflows associated with land sales and a healthy return on the government's investment holdings, the latter boosted by the strong performance of the local stockmarket in 2010. In the forecast period fiscal inflows may be volatile. This will reflect the crucial role of revenue from stamp duty (which varies with the performance of the local securities markets) and land sales. In line with recent government commitments to provide land for the construction of more housing, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects a steady stream of land auctions to boost revenue in 2011-12, before such sales diminish in frequency in 2013-15. The government will persist with a tight fiscal policy, underpinned by only modest expenditure rises in the next five years. Pressure will build gradually for greater spending on social welfare, but growth in infrastructure expenditure is likely to slow towards the end of the period as a number of major public projects approach completion. The government will post large surpluses in 2011-15, equivalent to 2.4% of GDP on average, and Hong Kong will be a substantial net creditor, as its debts will be offset by larger holdings of assets.