The next legislative election will take place in 2012. As a result of recent reforms, at the poll the number of seats in Legco will rise to 70, from 60 at present. Currently, 30 of the chamber's 60 members are directly elected, while the others represent "functional" constituencies, being elected indirectly by social and business interest groups. However, the ten new members to be added in 2012 will in effect be elected by universal suffrage, and so for the first time the majority of legislators will be chosen by popular vote. This should benefit the DP and other pro-democracy groups, which tend to win more seats among the broad electorate, but the democratic camp is still likely to lack a majority. The trend towards universal suffrage will increase pressure on all parties to adopt policies with broader popular appeal. A partial erosion of Hong Kong's laisser-faire model of capitalism, which has been protected in the past by the business elites of the functional constituencies, may be more apparent from 2012. The most recent example of increased populism is a major government policy reversal in relation to the budget for fiscal year 2011/12 (April-March), after the administration was forced to announce a series of tax rebates. The government had originally opposed tax cuts in the budget on the grounds that this could be inflationary.

Reforms passed last year increased from 800 to 1,200 members the size of the committee that selects the chief executive. However, it is likely that the mainland government will still essentially make the decision as to whom the committee should choose. Hong Kong's chief secretary for administration, Henry Tang, is an early front-runner to succeed Mr Tsang, but other candidates are also likely to come to the fore in the next few months. Mr Tsang's successor will face calls for legislation to introduce full democracy at the Legco election in 2016, or at least for the chief executive poll scheduled for 2017, but the Chinese government has an effective veto on any such move.