Country Report Zimbabwe September 2010

Outlook for 2010-11: International assumptions

International assumptions summary
(% unless otherwise indicated)
Real GDP growth
Exchange rates
Financial indicators
€ 3-month interbank rate4.651.230.820.93
US$ 3-month Libor2.910.690.640.78
Commodity prices
Oil (Brent; US$/b)97.761.980.078.5
Gold (US$/troy oz)871.8973.01,179.81,238.8
Platinum (US$/oz)1,563.21,204.81,579.11,595.0
Food, feedstuffs & beverages (% change in US$ terms)28.3-
Industrial raw materials (% change in US$ terms)-5.1-25.632.93.4
Note. Regional GDP growth rates weighted using purchasing power parity exchange rates.

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We expect world GDP (measured on a purchasing power parity basis) to expand by 4.5% in 2010 as many Western economies start to recover from recession. Growth is set to moderate in 2011, however, not least because US expansion is poised to decelerate as the impact of the stimulus measures fades and domestic demand remains weak. The prices of some commodities should recover strongly in 2010: platinum, for example, will rise by 31% while gold prices will increase by 21%. We expect Brent Blend to average US$80/barrel in 2010 (a rise of 29% from the 2009 average), which will increase Zimbabwe's oil import bill. Prices will moderate slightly in 2011, to an average of US$78.5/b.

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