In most of the region the public finances will remain under pressure during the outlook period, following recessions in most countries in both 2009 and 2010, which severely depressed revenue collection. Public debt, which at end-2010 averaged over 90% of GDP, is expected to rise further in 2011; high public-debt levels in most Caricom countries will continue to pose a serious threat to fiscal stability in an economic environment characterised by tight liquidity. Rollover risk will remain heightened as investor risk appetite will remain lower than in the 2004-08 boom years. At the same time, current spending requirements will remain high. Governments will find it increasingly difficult to generate larger primary surpluses or boost GDP growth in order to maintain debt ratios at their current levels. Those countries that have not already done so will seek to introduce a value-added tax (VAT) to help offset falling revenue from trade taxes. In many countries in the region, however, resistance to expenditure cuts or tax rate increases will make fiscal improvements hard to achieve. In commodity-producing countries (Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname and Guyana), volatile global prices will further complicate the fiscal situation. A further source of fiscal pressure in some countries will come from subsidised fuel imports and consumption. We expect oil prices to remain high by historical standards during the outlook period, averaging US$90/barrel in 2011 (up 13% year on year) and US$82.25/b in 2012.