Despite recent progress on paper, in practice Caricom's region-wide integration efforts will remain stalled during the outlook period as countries opt for increasingly protectionist policies in the wake of the economic downturn. All Caricom member states, with the exception of Haiti and the Bahamas, have now formally joined the region's single market, although some barriers to trade remain in place. Progress on the implementation of a single economy will prove significantly more difficult: even in the years when economic growth was strong, governments were hesitant to cede control of monetary and exchange-rate policies. Any attempt to strengthen the powers of regional institutions would require constitutional amendments in most member states, which can be a slow process, even when most political forces are supportive of reform (which currently they are not). Furthermore, the need for fiscal austerity in most member countries will result in continuing financial hardship for the region's key institutions, particularly the Caricom Secretariat, which will slow progress even further. The search for the next secretary-general of Caricom will continue, but with few stellar candidates available to fill the post, the institution will continue to struggle to assert its relevance on a regional level.

The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA, a reciprocal trade agreement compatible with the World Trade Organisation, or WTO) signed between the EU and the Cariforum (Caricom and the Dominican Republic) in mid-2008 will have little impact on trade flows in 2011-12, partly because barriers to imports will be dismantled at a slow pace and Caribbean businesses remain ill-prepared for major export initiatives. In addition, disputes between Caricom and the Dominican Republic over trade adjustment funds from the EU will remain contentious; economic and political interests in the region will continue to block the Dominican Republic's bid to join Caricom as a means of easing these disputes. Although some work is now under way, the prospect of a finalised free-trade agreement (FTA) with Canada to replace the Caricom-Canada Trade and Economic Co-operation Agreement (CaribCan, which will expire in 2011) remains low owing to resistance within the region to further trade agreements in the wake of the economic downturn. Other initiatives aimed at boosting trade flows will have little impetus-talks within the WTO and proposals for an FTA with the US will remain stalled. Regional governments and much of the private sector will continue to regard liberalisation as a threat to high-cost protected industries and to trade tax revenue, which is crucial to the beleaguered public finances in most countries. Caricom industries-other than bananas and sugar-have not benefited from existing bilateral trade pacts in force over the last 20 years, such as the Lomé and Cotonou conventions (with the EU), and the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) with the US. A lack of economies of scale and structural reforms will continue to undermine the potential advantages available from trade accords, and trade negotiations will continue to be seen as a means of leveraging increased development assistance.