Country Report St Maarten March 2011

The region: Weak economic growth will result in volatility

Although the countries of the Caribbean Community (Caricom) will continue to enjoy broad political stability in the outlook period, there is a risk of increased unrest as most countries struggle to cope with still-weak economic growth and high rates of unemployment following deep recessions in 2009 and 2010. As governments continue to cope with severe fiscal constraints amid extremely high levels of public debt, inequality and poverty levels will rise, reversing much of the progress made in the past decade. That said, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not expect rising discontent to threaten the region's long democratic tradition, with most of the region's governments expected to serve out their full parliamentary terms and several others opting for early elections to consolidate their parliamentary positions. Nor do we expect difficult economic conditions to spark social unrest in the majority of the region. The region's two largest economies, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, will continue to struggle with high levels of crime, despite government initiatives to combat drug-trafficking and gang activity; other countries-particularly those in the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS)-will face continued increases in crime levels as a result of extremely high unemployment and widespread poverty.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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