Country Report St Maarten March 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: Policy trends

The authorities' statements about the new country's economic policy have been short on substance. The government's accounts are under the supervision of the Dutch College Financieel Toezicht (CFT, the financial supervision council), which provides technical assistance to the authorities in St Maarten and Curaçao. The CFT rejected the draft 2011 budget owing to over-optimistic GDP growth and revenue growth forecasts, and is currently considering a new draft budget. The government's budget problems present a serious concern, especially since debt relief provided to the Netherlands Antilles by the Dutch government as part of the independence package, as well as the continuance of aid flows from the Netherlands, should have provided some room to implement moderate fiscal spending measures in 2011. The CFT has also ordered an independent audit of the cost of the government's programme as Dutch debt forgiveness precludes St Maarten from building up new overseas debt. The government will struggle to consolidate the fiscal accounts and continued weak economic growth will undermine its attempts at reform. Any unpopular austerity measures will also test the strength of the governing coalition. The fiscal accounts are likely to remain in deficit throughout the outlook period.

The Netherlands Antilles guilder will remain pegged to the US dollar until a new shared currency is adopted in 2012. The Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten (the Central Bank) has made no decision about whether the two islands (which form a currency union) will adopt the US dollar (a stance favoured in St Maarten) or the Dutch Caribbean guilder, a new currency. The latter stance is favoured by Curaçao as the adoption of the US dollar would hurt the foreign exchange businesses of the commercial banks.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
Whilst every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this information
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