In 2011-12 we expect export earnings to grow to an average of US$14.5bn, although this is still below the oil-price-related peak in 2008 of US$15.3bn. In recent years, drought has seriously constrained production, and therefore exports, of cotton and textiles. The drought has now eased, but the 2010/11 wheat crop is expected to be disappointing and a boll weevil infestation has affected the cotton crop.

Oil production, which is increasing at a number of small fields but declining at the larger, mature fields, rose by 2.5% in 2010. Output will pick up further in 2011-12, averaging 392,000 barrels/day. The net impact of changes in oil prices on the trade balance is limited, because Syria's imports of refined products are about equal in value to its exports of crude oil. Higher production in 2011, augmented by a rise in average international oil prices to US$86/barrel in 2011-12 from US$80/b in 2010, will push up crude oil export revenue to an average of US$4.5bn in 2011-12, from US$4bn in 2010. Overall, the trade deficit will narrow to an average of US$345m in 2011-12, or 0.5% of GDP.

The non-merchandise surplus is set to continue expanding in 2011-12 as Syria becomes increasingly integrated internationally. In particular, tourism receipts will grow strongly as a result of improving tourism infrastructure. The non-merchandise surplus is expected to widen. Overall, the current-account surplus will grow to an average of US$1.3bn (1.9% of GDP).