We have further revised down our forecasts for the budget deficit, following a lower than previously estimated deficit in 2009, as our projections for oil prices and production have increased. The government has announced that it expects the fiscal deficit to average around 6% of GDP in 2010-12. However, government expectations for revenue and oil prices tend to be conservative, and the government also usually fails to disburse its spending allocations fully. We therefore estimate that the budget deficit was 3.2% of GDP in 2010. In 2011 we expect the deficit to contract to 0.6% of GDP, even further below the projections of the government, which has not fully accounted for windfall revenue from converting existing mobile-phone contracts into licences and awarding a licence to a third operator. In 2012 continued strong growth in capital expenditure-in keeping with the government's five-year plan to boost investment-without exceptional increases in revenue will lead to a widening of the deficit to 4% of GDP. Plans to reform public enterprises-most of which are unprofitable-by transforming them into autonomous companies with their own budgets should have a net positive impact on the public finances, and some privatisations are possible.