Country Report Syria February 2011

Outlook for 2011-12: International relations

After a period of diplomatic isolation in 2005-07, Syria has developed steadily better ties with Western and regional states. However, the collapse of the joint Saudi-Syrian initiative to shore up political stability in Lebanon in January will test Syria's relations with Saudi Arabia and the West. The fall of the Lebanese national unity government, and subsequent nomination of Najib Miqati, close to both Hizbullah, a Lebanese militant group and Syrian ally, and Syria, as prime minister of Lebanon, marks greater Syrian involvement in its neighbour, and was met with demonstrations by Lebanon's Sunni community. However, Syria is nervous of Hizbullah's growing power and independence, and Hizbullah is wary of being used as a bargaining chip by Syria.

Despite these developments, the EU is now ready to sign a long-delayed Association Agreement, and final negotiations are ongoing. Relations with the US have also improved, and although US sanctions on Syria were renewed in May 2010, the US has withdrawn its objections to Syria's accession to the World Trade Organisation, and the US ambassador, Robert Ford, finally took up his position on January 16th. However, Syria's continued commitment to a strong relationship with Iran and its support for Hizbullah and Hamas, the Palestinian group that controls Gaza, present ongoing difficulties. There is also opposition to closer ties with Syria within the US Congress-a group of Republican senators are intent on blocking US concessions to Syria. An investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency into allegations that Syria has a nuclear programme also poses a threat.

Talks with Israel are unlikely to yield results, despite recognition by the US that Syria is important to the peace process. Syria has expressed its willingness to resume peace talks if they are based on Israel's full withdrawal from the Golan Heights (captured from Syria in 1967). However, there is little popular or parliamentary support in Israel for a withdrawal. Syria would be required to end its strategic alliance with Iran and its support for Hizbullah and Hamas, as part of any peace agreement, which would be politically difficult but not impossible.

© 2011 The Economist lntelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved
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