Tunisia domino effect: could it happen in Syria?

The fall of the regime of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia following a month of street protests and the popular revolt against Hosni Mubarak in Egypt have sparked expectations that authoritarian regimes throughout the region, particularly the Arab republics, might be brought down in a domino effect. Syria certainly shares many of the features that fuelled the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt. The young population faces inequality, high unemployment and rising food prices, and there is widespread regional poverty. The country has been run by the same ruling party for four decades, and there is corruption and rent-seeking among those close to the ruling family.

However, there are also significant differences. Although the possibility of tawrith, or dynastic succession, is driving unrest across the region, particularly in Egypt, the fact that the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, succeeded his father ten years ago means that he has had the chance to establish his own legitimacy. He is a relatively popular figure, and is supported by multiple intelligence agencies, making a coup unlikely. Syria's posture of resistance towards Israel and Western imperialism also gives the state a popular legitimacy that pro-Western Tunisia and Egypt lack. Unlike relatively homogenous Tunisia, Syria is a melting pot, with a Sunni Arab majority alongside Alawis, Christians, Ismailis, Druze, Kurds and Armenians, as well as Palestinian and Iraqi refugees. There is a fear on all sides that any revolt against the regime could descend into sectarian conflict. The last time the regime was challenged, a Sunni Islamic insurgency ended in the 1982 siege and bombardment of Hama, in which thousands of people died. Syria also lacks the same young, well-educated, but frustrated middle class that it is argued sparked the revolt in Tunisia.

However, the situation is moving fast in Egypt, and if the regime there were to fall, there would be repercussions across the region. Radical change in Syria cannot be ruled out.