Political risk has spiked in Gabon-one of the region's most stable countries-16 months after the election of the president, Ali Bongo Ondimba. Although many leading opposition politicians continue to contest his legitimacy, the potential for short-term instability stems from the insistence of André Mba Obame, the former leader of the Union nationale (UN) party, that he is the rightful winner of the 2009 presidential election. Strengthened by recent unsubstantiated allegations by former French officials that the poll was rigged, he proclaimed himself as such in January, leading to the UN's official dissolution by the government. Despite early public rejection of Mr Bongo's victory, popular support for Mr Mba Obame has been limited, as has been that from his UN colleagues. Foreign governments have reiterated their support for Mr Bongo, and the Economist Intelligence Unit does not expect the election result to be overturned. Nevertheless, the likelihood has increased of localised unrest as the 2011 legislative elections approach. Port-Gentil, Gabon's economic centre and the scene of the worst unrest after the 2009 presidential election, is a likely flashpoint.

There have been recent signs of a rapprochement between another opposition veteran, Pierre Mamboundou, who came second in 2009's presidential election and leads the Union du peuple gabonais (UPG), and the ruling Parti démocratique gabonais (PDG). Such a move would entail the UPG-the largest opposition party in the National Assembly-both recognising Mr Bongo's legitimacy and supporting his policy agenda in parliament, which would benefit political stability. However, perhaps fearful of upsetting senior PDG members, Mr Bongo did not offer any positions to the opposition in his January cabinet reshuffle. This does not necessarily preclude co-operation between the parties. If there is no agreement to work together, Mr Mamboundou's credibility will have been damaged by his willingness to negotiate with a regime that he previously decried as illegitimate. Such a rapprochement would increase the government's support among the Punu-Lumbu ethnic group, comprising around 20% of the population and based mainly in the south-west, including Port-Gentil.

Maintaining the good relations with the armed forces that Mr Bongo fostered as defence minister will be essential to prevent them from becoming a threat. Corruption probes and reshuffles of the top military leadership are therefore unlikely. Army discipline is good, and the risk of a coup is low; the expanded French garrison in the capital, Libreville, will increase the deterrent. Nonetheless, the administration will remain under pressure to improve living standards; frequent power cuts and water shortages, decrepit infrastructure and inadequate provision of healthcare and education are a drag on economic growth and a source of popular anger. The government will need to address these if it is to stem the rise in trade union militancy.

Balancing his desire to root out the patronage networks that marked his father's 42-year regime with preserving political stability, Mr Bongo will continue to maintain a careful ethnic balance in his political appointments and allocate state funds selectively. To achieve this, the president, of Téké ethnicity, will need to appeal to political leaders of Fang origin-Gabon's largest ethnic group. Significantly, the Fang prime minister, Paul Biyoghé Mba, retained his position in the recent cabinet reshuffle, despite tensions between him and the president.