Having achieved a broad political and popular consensus in support of the sweeping and painful economic reforms since 2008-and with the economy already beginning to rebound strongly-Mr Michel is the likely victor come the election, although he has until April 27th officially to submit his nomination. Speculation that Mr Michel may yet call legislative elections early, to coincide with the presidential poll-given his cabinet reshuffle in June 2010 and civil service reforms-seems increasingly unlikely to come to pass. It is possible that the electorate-having clung to the PP in times of economic difficulty-will feel more confident about embracing change in an improved climate, but the PP, and in its previous guise, the Seychelles People's Progressive Front (SPPF), remains dominant on the archipelago, having controlled the legislature and presidency since 1979.

The parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place in 2012. The SNP, which captured 11 out of 34 seats in 2007, will struggle to add to this total and is, in fact, vulnerable in a few constituencies. The PP will cross the two-thirds threshold needed to amend the constitution unilaterally if it wins one extra seat (the PP speaker does not vote). Indeed, perhaps anticipating such a result, Mr Michel is publicly discussing the need to update various laws and provisions in the constitution following an official constitutional review concluded at the end of 2009. However, the attorney-general, Ronnie Govinden, has stressed the importance of a national referendum on any changes, even if the PP does attain a super-majority.