In the upcoming presidential election scheduled for May 19th-21st 2011-the president, James Michel, the leader of the ruling People's Party (PP; also known as Parti Lepep), will face the electorate for the first time since the economic crisis and subsequent sweeping economic reforms in 2008-09. Mr Michel won the last presidential ballot in 2006, defeating Wavel Ramkalawan of the Seychelles National Party (SNP) by a narrow margin. However, he will approach the next election with greater confidence, given the improved outlook for the economy following the extensive reforms initiated in late 2008. Despite the pain of adjustment and a decline in living standards, the economy is now rebounding and is likely to remain buoyant in the pre-election period. This will boost further Mr Michel's re-election prospects, provided that the reform process remains on track and there are no exogenous shocks. Although economic liberalisation represents a reversal of the PP's quasi-socialist heritage, and is closer to SNP policy, the opposition will find it hard to capitalise on the shift in political terms, and the ruling party (and Mr Michel) will seek to take advantage of the economic recovery. The SNP, by contrast, is struggling to reformulate its policy platform in order to differentiate its message from that of the ruling party. It seems likely that Mr Ramkalawan will remain as party leader to fight the election and will emphasise the party's long-standing support for labour rights and a non-politicised civil service. Although official campaigning only begins after the nomination deadline on April 27th, partisan press is already stirring up support for their preferred candidates. While media sympathetic to the SNP are accusing the election commission of facilitating what it alleges will be a rigged poll, the election is in fact expected to be free and fair. Mr Ramkalawan's claims that Seychelles could follow in the footsteps of the uprisings in North Africa are more a sign of hysterical campaigning than a comment on the state of the islands' political freedom.

Nonetheless, the difference between the two parties has shrunk and, even in the unlikely event of a SNP victory there are unlikely to be any significant policy shifts, especially given Seychelles' dependence on external support. The socio-economic reform process should help to turn Seychelles into a more transparent and less partisan society, although some key challenges remain, notably those of building a more independent judiciary and continuing tentative steps towards improving press freedom.